Will Donald Trump’s Latest Tariff Impact Coffee Prices?

Donald Trump has been at it again, threatening to inflict 50% import tariffs on commodities from Brazil.

How might those tariffs affect coffee prices, and will the impact f Trump’s actions extend to the UK?

Why is Trump imposing new tariffs on Brazil?

Coffee futures jumped 10 July 2025 after Donald Trump announced his intention to apply new tariffs to Brazilian products. His plans appear to be retaliation for what he characterised as a “witch hunt” against Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro who is on trial for allegedly plotting a coup.

What will happen now?

Coffee prices have recently fallen after reaching record highs following several poor harvests. Climate change is already impacting the cost of our cuppas and now Donald Trump could make matters much worse.

However, it is worth bearing in mind that Trump has developed the habit of not carrying through on his threats.

There’s a very real chance that the threatened Tariff won’t be imposed, particularly as penalising Brazil is a curious move by the president. After all, the US runs a trade surplus with Brazil, not a deficit. In addition, Brazil is the biggest supplier of beans to the US. Serious shortages could ensue as supplies from other markets wouldn’t be sufficient to replace those from Brazil.

Trump may also be considering that his voters wouldn’t be at all happy about the price of their favourite brews jumping to yet new highs let alone a nationwide shortage of beans.

It could be that the president decides to exclude coffee from the proposed 50% tariff.

The mere threat of a new tariff could deliver serious repercussions for consumers and not just those in the US. Such dramatic moves will always reverberate worldwide. Coffee importers and retailers across the globe don’t enjoy volatile markets and could protect themselves from a bumpy ride by increasing prices, even if the new tariff isn’t imposed immediately.

Things might not be all bad for the UK, though. Brazil may well begin to seek new markets, especially if the country finds itself with a surplus of beans when exports to the US dry up. Brazil is responsible for 35% of all coffee exports.

Vietnam and Indonesia are also facing significant US tariffs and may well look to new markets too. There could be opportunities for UK and European importers to strike favourable deals.

Europeans certainly drink more coffee per capita than Americans. Indeed, across the region, coffee drinkers collectively get through nearly double the amount of beans than are used in North America.

When could prices increase?

Increases in the price of beans tend to hit consumers after around 8 months. Any manoeuvres by Donald Trump now could be reflected in the cost of cuppas next spring. Coffee drinkers will feel the pinch while non-Brazilian exporters and speculators in the futures coffee markets may benefit. The markets across the world could take years to stabilise after Donald Trump’s actions. Even if the new tariffs are never imposed.